Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
